Within the framework of NDS-2030, the country at a new stage of development faces three key tasks: first, to achieve a level of socio-economic development comparable to that of middle-income countries, and secondly, to ensure sustainability of development by diversifying and increasing the competitiveness of the national economy and third, expand and strengthen the middle class.
To solve the first problem, you must:
maintain sustainable economic growth rates at the level of 7-8%;
increase the country's GDP by 3 or more times;
to increase more than 2.5 times the level of GDP per capita;
reduce the level of poverty by more than 2 times and eradicate extreme poverty;
significantly increase spending on social protection of the population.
To solve the second problem it is necessary:
ensure higher rates of industrial growth and increase its share in the country's GDP;
improve the efficiency of agriculture and increase its contribution to food security, including good nutrition;
ensuring accelerated growth rates of services of a higher degree of complexity;
an increase in the diversification of the national economy (a decrease in the export concentration index for three main products from 83% to 58%);
increasing the level of competitiveness of the national economy.
The implementation of these tasks will allow it to take 60th place in the Doing Business ranking by 2030 (the current position is 132nd among 189 countries).
To solve the third problem, it is necessary to ensure an increase in the share of the middle class to 50% in 2030. Key actions under this objective should be:
assistance in increasing the income of the population, especially the rural population, youth and women;
creation of conditions for obtaining decent and productive work, including employment of vulnerable groups of the population;
reducing the level of inequality in society.
Taking into account the degree of implementation of the three main tasks, three independent scenarios are considered: (1) inertial, (2) industrial, and (3) industrial-innovative.
It should be noted that NDS-2030 consists of three phases of development: (1) transition to a new model of economic development (2016-2020); (2) is based on the rapid development of the economy to attract investment (2021-2025) and (3) the accelerated completion of industrialization by increasing capacities, including the development of science and innovation (2026-2030).
The first stage is based on the development of the industrial sector. Thanks to this model, there will be rapid growth in industry, agriculture and the financial sector.
As part of the second stage of economic development, attracting foreign direct investment will be developed. At this stage of the strategy, energy security is its main goal in order to fully meet the needs of the economy with energy resources. In addition, during this period, construction will be completed, and the rehabilitation of transport corridors, as well as the issue of the country's railway deadlock will be resolved.
The third stage will be the development of science, technology and innovation. Those. it will be the introduction of advanced technologies to promote the growth of human capital.
Prospects for national development of the Republic of Tajikistan until 2030
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The supreme goal of the long-term development of Tajikistan is to improve the living standards of the country's population on the basis of ensuring sustainable economic development, which characterizes the following strategic development goals:
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